"With 2023 the warmest year on record, 2024 could see the unwelcome milestone of 1.5 degres of warming reached for a full year. The year 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest in recorded history with average global temperatures topping 1,5 degrees of heating above preindustrial levels for one third os the year. It continues the rapis warming trend, with te 10 warmest years in human histiry all having occurred since 2010.
So, whay could 2014 hold? Forescast suggest the year ahead is likely to be another breaker, with a strong possibility that this could be the first full year to go beyond 1,5 º of warming. The ongoing El Niño event, which brings warmer to the tropical Pacific Ocean, is helping to push global temperatures up, but UK Met Service scientist say the main driver of the record-breaking tempertures is human-induced warming. Their global outlook for 2024 suggest we will end the next year with average global temperture somewhere between 1.34º and 1.54 º above preindustrial levels.
Overshooting 1.5 º would be an unwelcome milestone but it would not mean we have breached the Paris agreement. Curiously, the 2015 climate accord did not how we would recognize that the 1.5 º target had been surpassed, but it is widely accepted to mean a longer-term average over 20 years or so. Rather than waiting decades for data to roll in, recent research published in Nature suggest using a blend of observations and model projections to test when 1.5 º has been passed".
Adapted from an article by Kate bRavilious, The Guardian, 4-1-2024.
Cronología de perspectivas. A). MARCHETTI es conocido por sus estudios sobre el desarrollo sostenible y evolución de los sistemas energéticos. Su visión es un Planeta de Abundancia y sin pobreza…porque existe progreso tecnológico y eficiencia en uso de recursos. Ideas relacionadas con su visión incluyen: -Economía de la Abundancia, pero sin pobres ni excluidos. -Innovación tecnológica, con mejor acceso al agua, energía y alimentos. -Distribución equitativa y no producir+ Pros y Contras: Se simplifica la movilidad urbana y sugiere la energía , a largo plazo, con una propuesta geo ingeniería y economía de Hidrógeno, con captura y almacenamiento de Carbono. B)La perspectiva Alemana está muy influenciada por la “Transición Energética”(Energiewende), que busca reducir la dependencia de combustibles fósiles e incremento de renovables. Puntos clave: Abandono nucleares 2030, pero con independencia energética x Guerra Ukraine,.. 80% renovables + electricidad Su gran apuesta es la...
Comentarios
Publicar un comentario